The 143rd Kentucky Derby is May 6th at Churchill Downs in Kentucky and a 70% chance of rain is in the forecast. Finding a good mudder in this group of 20 is nearly impossible. We thank Mike Battaglia, the odds maker at Churchill Downs, for giving us a morning line favorite at 4-1, Classic Empire, but come race day his odds will plummet from that enticing 4-1.
Mudders with potential:
Ralph Lauren Womens bluee Cream Lace Sleeveless Dress New NWT Small 6Classic Empire (4-1): Broke his maiden on a wet surface at Churchill Downs in 2016. Veteran rider Julien Leparoux has been aboard for all of Classic Empire’s starts.
Tapwrit (20-1): Also broke his maiden over a wet surface. My concern with Tapwrit is that his head is not in the game. He’s worth at look in a superfecta at this price and on Derby Day.
Lauren by Ralph Lauren NEW White Womens Size 10 Surplice Sheath Dress 402Anthropologie Seen Worn Kept Denim Pinafore Dress 4 NWOT SOLD OUTGormley (15-1): Also has a win on a wet surface in California, but a wet surface in Southern California is very different than a wet surface in Kentucky. The only advantage for Gormley is his veteran jockey, Victor Espinoza. Gormley races well in California but the ship to Kentucky is a mystery.
Battle of Midway (30-1): Another California shipper who broke his maiden on a wet Santa Anita surface. Finished second behind Gormley in the Santa Anita Derby, has always been in the money in all of his four races. In a very scattered Derby, this horse deserves a look, especially at this price.
The Real Deals:
Classic Empire has been on my radar (and everyone else’s) DVF Diane Von Furstenberg Jenny True WRAP DRESS Cream Brown Silk Short sleeve 6since he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s kind of a sassy horse. He’s been known to train when he feels like it, but certainly shows up for the race. With his veteran jockey, consistent money finishes on his resume, and can run on a wet surface, Classic Empire lands on the top of my list. Besides all that, he’s American Pharaoh’s little brother. So the pedigree is perfect.
Rinascimento 86001_003 Femme black 92086 robeNicole Miller Women's Cold-Shoulder Lace Popover Dress (10, bluee White)
McCracken (5-1): McCracken finished third in his last race behind Practical Joke and Irap in the Bluegrass, but again, he didn’t need to win because he was already in with his win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Until the Bluegrass, McCracken was undefeated, and veteran jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. has been with him from the first race.ANTHROPOLOGIE Maeve Kira Printed Maxi Dress Small
Filling out the Superfecta:
Always Dreaming (5-1): Three wins in a row for Always Dreaming since veteran jock Johnny Velazquez took over, but only one graded stakes win, the Florida Derby, which he needed to get to Churchill Downs. A veteran rider, but little graded stakes experience and no races on a wet track. However, he’s been training well at Churchill and has put in some impressive bullet works since he arrived.
Red Pink Alice Trump Rabbit JSK Lolita BTSSB Baby VGblackes Wetlook-Mini-Kleid D182 von 7-Heaven Dessous sexy Schnürung Größe MJ. Crew Sheath dress in textured tweed, white, Size 6
Thunder Snow (20-1):Adrianna papell formal evening dress This is the European entry. Entering the gates as a multiple graded stakes winner in Europe with extremely impressing speed figures, but has no American racing experience and has ran most of his races at sprint distances. The check mark on this horse goes to the connections and that the fields in Europe are bigger than they are here. The UAE Derby, which Thunder Snow won, had 15 entries. He will not be shy of the 20 in the gate.
State of Honor (30-1): I wanted to make this horse my superfecta filler, but he has one knock: His jockey, Jose Lezcano. Julien Leparoux has been on State of Honor for his last four races, which were stakes races, and in which State of Honor finished on the board all four times. But, Leparoux is also the jockey for Classic Empire. (What a choice?) This Mark Casse trainee gets a definite look and will be taking superfecta money come post time.
Practical Joke (20-1) was doing fine until he got into races with the other Derby contenders then he couldn’t seem to get around Gunnevera, Classic Empire or Irap. He has no wet surface races, doesn’t like the distance or the crowds.
- Bardot Floral Wrap Dress Size 10
- Tuta Pantaloncini women Copricostume Casual Woman Shorts Jumpsuit 660016 P
- Simone Perele Imprevue Plunge Bra - Women's
- BNWT ALICE㢲ᔠ Ladies White Yellow Floral Printed Pleated Skirt US6 UK10
- The Breakfast Club Breakfast Foods Club Womans Fitted T Shirt Movie
- J. Crew bluee White Stripe Maxi Dress Sz S Sleeveless Womens Stretch Soft Cotton
- AX Paris Womens Midi Bodycon Dress Navy Floral Bardot Notch Front Sleeveless
- COLE HAAN Signature Women's Bib Navy bluee Hooded Down & Feather Puffer Coat Sz L
- NWT Lane Bryant Sweater drape,2 way open cardigan,short shrug,forest green,18 20
- Kut from the kloth Womens Denim Doubled Buttons Front bluee Jeans Size 8 A1016
- Jovani 37185 Evening Dress LOWEST PRICE GUARANTEED NEW Authentic Gown
- Milly bluee Geo-Printed Women's Size 12 Tie-Sleeve Wrap Maxi Dress -
- BRUNELLO CUCINELLI Charcoal Wool Blend Jodhpurs Style Crop Pant w Zip Trim US8
- Sexy Woman VI-J3976C broek Dames - kleur Wit NL
- Free People Denim Step Up Dark bluee Mini Skirt 2